Will abortion prompt Arizona voters to lean more Democratic?

Phoenix, Arizona – With 11 Electoral College votes up for grabs, the swing state of Arizona is key prize in the 2024 United States presidential race.
And many local voters told Al Jazeera that, no matter their political leanings, abortion was pivotal in determining how they cast their ballot.
On Tuesday’s Election Day, Al Jazeera travelled to three different polling locations in the Phoenix metropolitan area — one in downtown, one in nearby Mesa and one in the suburban city of Buckeye — to ask residents about their motivations for voting.
Abortion seemed to be at the forefront of their minds.
“I think it’s so important to get out and get involved, especially with how high risk this election is for a lot of people,” said Rebekah Lane, an 18-year-old student at Arizona State University in Phoenix. “I just want people to have the freedom to do whatever they want.”
Lane identifies as a libertarian. But she is voting for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in this year’s election because she prefers a progressive stance on abortion.
As a member of the queer community, Lane also thinks Harris has done more to cater to LGBTQ+ rights. But she expressed disappointment that Democrats and Republicans have not done more to court third-party voters.
“I don’t really think that they’re doing exactly what I’m looking for,” she said. “But no political candidate is going to do that.”
The issue of abortion also prompted 35-year-old registered independent Ramon Hidalgo to vote blue this year.
“As you see, women had the right that a lot of us men have with our bodies,” Hidalgo said. He added he wanted to make “sure they were able to make decisions that pertain to them”.
Mercy Caballero, a 30-year-old registered Democrat, called abortion access a “really important topic”. She emphasised the need for personal autonomy over one’s body.
“I feel you need to make a decision,” Caballero said. “Like, it’s not just the government.”
The topic of abortion access has gained prominence in recent years, following the overturn of a key Supreme Court precedent, Roe v Wade.
Since 1973, Roe v Wade had established a constitutional right to abortion access on the federal level.
But under former Republican President Donald Trump, the balance of power on the Supreme Court shifted towards the conservative justices.
In 2022, the court ruled it would overturn Roe v Wade, eliminating federal abortion protections and reverting the question of access to individual states.
Trump is currently on the ballot as the Republican nominee, in his second re-election attempt. His campaign has, in part, highlighted his role in the 2022 court decision — but Trump himself has rejected calls for a federal abortion ban, a longtime Republican priority.
Arizona was one of 10 states on Tuesday’s Election Day that weighed a ballot measure to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution.
At least one of those 10 states, Florida, failed to pass its measure. Other states, like Nebraska, had rival measures on the ballot that would negate any protections voted in.
The issue was on Arizona’s ballot under the title Proposition 139 — and it passed, establishing abortion protections in the state constitution. And the swing state may be a bellwether for how successful the issue is nationwide.
Before Proposition 139’s passage, abortion was only legal in Arizona during the first 15 weeks of pregnancy — and then afterwards, solely in the case of a medical emergency. No exceptions were made for rape or incest.
Pro-abortion rights advocates, however, felt the 15-week ban discouraged healthcare providers from reacting to complications and other circumstances that may arise later in pregnancy.
The question of abortion rights has divided the Republican Party, said Jacob Baird, a 25-year-old registered Republican from the city of Mesa.
Baird views women’s rights as this year’s most important issue, along with the economy.
He has been a member of the Republican Party since he registered to become a voter. He first voted for a third-party candidate in the 2020 election, largely because of Trump’s stance on abortion.
This year, he said he could not overlook the issue, but he didn’t want his vote to go to waste by voting for a third-party candidate again. So he voted for Harris, the Democrat.
“Socially, I’m progressive. It’s just like, when it comes to, like, government spending and stuff, that’s the only thing I really agree with the Republicans on,” Baird said.
He wished that the Republican Party would “go back to what it used to be about”: fiscal conservative economic policies.
Al Jazeera interviewed another Republican voter, who refused to give his name, who also said abortion was an issue of top importance. But unlike Baird, he was adamantly opposed to the procedure.
“Why is one party so concerned with the right to kill babies?” he said. “I don’t understand it.”
The 45-year-old Republican said he has lived in Phoenix his entire life. He identified abortion alongside the economy and border policy as defining this year’s presidential race.
Independents, however, make up a large portion of Arizona’s voter base. An estimated 33.7 percent of voters refuse any party affiliation at all, according to state statistics as of October.
That is a bigger chunk of the population than identifies as Democratic. Approximately 29 percent of Arizona voters are registered Democrats, and 37.8 percent are Republicans.
Experts have called the independent vote in the state a wild card in what is expected to be a tight race.
In Arizona, the presidential race is a toss-up. The state was won by a Republican presidential candidate each election year from 1952 through 2016.
In 2020, however, President Joe Biden managed to flip the state blue. He eked out a victory by 10,457 votes.
When asked about this year’s top election issues, 31-year-old Dylan George, a registered independent, said it is important for Americans to take into account that “equality matters”.
“Even though they’re not my issues, they could be somebody else’s issues,” he said.
George named the economy as being of high importance to him, explaining that it was partially the reason why he identifies as an independent voter. But the issue of abortion is hard to overlook, he added.
“I have had preconceived notions of the previous president [Trump] and didn’t really appreciate how he respected people,” he said. “So that really swayed me to go more Democratic.”